Calypso Continuing Education

Apr 092019
 

By Francis X. (Rich) Finigan

Copyrighted © 2019 Calypso Continuing Education™

 

As real estate appraisers, we are interested in determining how a set of characteristics, such as the number of baths, bedrooms, or GLA etc. relate to the value of a property.

Our appraisals contain bold claims that the adjustments we make on the sales comparison grid are supported by the marketplace. But, are they?

With the evolution of AMCs, greater oversight by regulatory bodies, and the need to expand our market presence, appraisers need to employ tools that can save them time, reduce the liability, and open new markets.

Regression analysis is one of those tools. It’s a statistical tool that can be used to estimate the value of a whole property or components that make up the property. In the field of economics, regression analysis has been a mainstay for a very long time. With the development of inexpensive software, like Excel, regression analysis is making headway as a powerful tool in the appraiser’s toolbox.

Regression analysis by appraisers is nothing more than comparable sales, whether residential or commercial, in its most accurate form.

Specific property characteristics affect value, i.e. decks, granite countertops, views, etc. In regression analysis these characteristics are called independent or predictor variables. Their contributory value assists in predicting the value of a subject property. The value opinion or estimated value represents the dependent variable because it depends on the predictor variables in any given market. graph

 

When building a regression model for an appraisal, the dependent variable will be the sale price, which is regressed by specific property characteristics and their relationship to the marketplace i.e. independent/predictor variables. The result is an accurate opinion of value with adjustments on the sales grid that are statistically proven.  Heck, I remember when I used to use the SWAG theory. My how times have changed!

To fuel this sort of statistical analysis an appraiser needs to have lots of data. Well, most appraisers do have lots of data. It’s just sitting in your files doing nothing other than complying with the RECORD-KEEPING RULES of USPAP. Let’s put that data to work!

In simple linear regression a single independent variable is used to predict the value of a dependent variable. In multiple linear regression two or more independent variables are used to predict the value of a dependent variable. The difference between the two is the number of independent variables.

 

Regression analysis sounds like a lot of work, but with an Excel spreadsheet and a little bit of effort, you can save a lot of time answering questions from AMCs or defending your work if is called into question by a local appraisal board.

 

Create a new income stream with local builders. Builders spend tens of thousands of dollars on super adequacies instead of and maximizing their profits. You could provide local builders with statistical data identifying what the market will pay for certain features in a home.

 

Stay tuned for our next Food For Thought:  Appraisal Modeling Regression Methods 

And our upcoming 4-hour course on using Excel to develop appraisal regression analysis models. Regression analysis so easy even a caveman can do it!

 

Interesting factoid: The term “regression” was used by Francis Galton in his 1886 paper “Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature”. It has since become a mainstay in the fields of economics and political science.

 

Good luck and do good work.

Mar 112019
 

Dodd-Frank, Natural Disasters, and What You Need to Know about Mold

What do you know about mold? Where are the alligators lurking, as flood waters abate? Do you think you have third party liability to borrowers? If you think “no”, think again and keep reading, because there are the alligators, along with their attorneys, lurking in the receding floodwaters!

 

What do you need to know about mold to produce credible appraisal reports and protect yourself, your clients, and users of your reports from liability?

 

Consider these facts:

  1. Where there’s water in contact with building materials, there is going to be mold!

 

  1. The NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program) provides federally backed coverage for homeowners and small businesses throughout the country, but NFIP as of 2017 was $20 billion in debt, due to the recent succession of historically severe hurricane seasons and inland floods nationwide.

 

  1. Whether you believe in climate change or not, climatologists predict that these events are only going to get more frequent and worse. When resources begin drying up, insurers and lawyers start looking for another pocket to reach into. Could the appraiser be the next target?

 

  1. Here’s why I’m concerned, before Dodd Frank, and subsequently the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) interagency guidelines, our declaration, describing who the intended users are, seemed to provide us with protection against third-party liability.

 

  1. The Interagency Guideline’s Interim Final Rule[1] requires lenders nationwide to inform mortgage borrower/applicants that they can receive a free copy of whatever appraisals, reviews, computer valuations and other data used in the transaction. Borrowers are entitled to see this material “promptly” after the appraisal report is completed, or three days before your loan closes, whichever is earlier. The lender will have to inform borrowers/applicants of their rights within three business days after receipt of their mortgage application.

 

  1. Recently, the Arizona Court of Appeals found that where an appraiser knows his/her report will be given to third parties, the appraiser owes the third parties a duty of care. The court decided this despite express language in an appraisal disclaiming the right of third parties to rely on the appraisal report’s conclusions and opinions, because they were not intended users.

 

Mold can be the stuff that turns an American dream into a nightmare!

 

As an appraiser, design builder, and environmental expert, I can tell you with great certainty, mold can absolutely have a large impact on the value of a property!

 

Society has used mold to its advantage for thousands of years. Without mold we would have no cheese. Without mold we would have no wine. Heavens, where would we be without a robust blue cheese or a fine Grand Cru? In addition to the hedonistic pleasures it provides, mold has also given us one of the greatest medical achievements – penicillin. Penicillin has saved countless millions of lives.

Mold has also been recognized as a blight since ancient times, where passages from Leviticus (Chapter 14 verses 35 to 53) allude to homes with streaking of red and green plague on the walls being unfit for habitation. When the priest returned if the streaking still existed or had grown he would require the stones plasters and timbers to be torn down and disposed of in an “unclean place outside the village”. Construction technology changes in recent years exacerbate the problems that can cause mold.

Americans spend most of their time indoors. In fact, many Americans spend about 90 percent of their time indoors, where they are exposed to a smorgasbord of air pollutants. According to EPA, the concentrations of air pollutants indoors may be hundreds of times greater than concentrations of pollutants in outdoor air.

A major problem with indoor air quality began in the 1970s with the energy crisis. As a way of conserving energy we built our homes as tight as a frog’s…ah, inner eyelid. Issues like inadequate air exchange and drainage and improperly installed synthetic stuccos and flashing can trap moisture in wall cavities, an ideal environment for mold to flourish.

Mold is the next asbestos – with a major difference. It doesn’t have a 30-year gestation period like asbestos. Negative effects from mold can onset within a few hours of exposure and can include skin irritation, upper respiratory congestion, headache, lack of energy and extreme symptoms like pulmonary hemorrhaging and even death. Mold can be present in any home, in any price range, anywhere in the entire country. Mold is ubiquitous!

 

Understanding Mold

Mold isn’t the problem it is actually a symptom of a problem…uncontrolled water or moisture in a building.

So what is this mold? There are several types that have caught the attention of society today like, Stachybotrys (a.k.a. black killer mold) Penicillium, and Aspergillus. These molds grow where there is moisture, warmth and food. They like to grow on wood or wet cellulose rich building materials. There is lots of cellulose in the middle of the walls. Mold also like to grow in ductwork when the right conditions present themselves. Don’t think that mold is limited to poorly maintained homes; mold can be present in any home that water has been allowed to penetrate or excessive moisture buildup.

Think of a beautiful multi-million-dollar home where the framing is saturated during a rainstorm and then doesn’t fully dry.  The contractors will often insulate and close up the walls trapping moisture in wall cavities. This scenario is much more common than you would expect. Once mold spores have been incubated by a water source, mold can continue to proliferate from relative humidity of 50% or greater.

 

Mold wants to reproduce — not an unreasonable expectation for any of God’s creatures. It does so by sending out into the air mold spores that land on surfaces of damp cellulose or wood. The mold “knows” it is competing with other creatures for space so, some molds emit a toxic gas, mycotoxins, in order to poison other creatures competing for the same space. These mycotoxins do not affect only select people, like typical allergens. When inhaled, mycotoxins affect everyone to some degree. Those at greatest risk are individuals whose immune systems are compromised, such as infants, the elderly or someone recovering from pneumonia or the flu.

Protecting Yourself from Liability

You don’t have to dress like this to protect yourself from liability!

If you want to protect yourself from liability, be aware of conditions that mold thrives in. Conditions include; negative drainage, leaking foundations, dampness in basements and crawl spaces, leaky plumbing, improper flashing, that can allow water into wall cavities, improperly installed synthetic stucco, excessive moisture in crawl spaces and attics and more. Be sure to have these areas reviewed if they show signs of moisture or water penetration. Last but not least, make accurate disclosures to your client regarding what exists.

To learn more about recognizing conditions that can support mold growth and appropriate ways to disclose your observations, spend three hours of your valuable time taking our “Mold a Growing Concern” course. It’s approved for three hours of continuing education in most states. You’ll be glad you did!

 

Good luck and do good work,

 

Rich

[1] 12 CFR Part 1002 – Equal Credit Opportunity Act (Regulation B) specifically 1002.14 Rules on Providing Appraisals and Other Valuations.

Sep 182018
 

New gear, yahoo!!!! Who doesn’t want new toys, especially one that can make you better at your profession! Drones, whether you love them or want to shoot them out of the sky, appear to be here to stay.

The real estate industry has been quick to dive into this new and innovative technology and appraisers are no exception. With the use of drones increasing The Appraisal Foundation found it important to produce an FAQ (FAQ 214) to answer some of the questions surrounding the use of aerial viewing and its relationship to credible appraisal results.

The main advantage to using a drone, in appraisal practice, is making hard to reach places easily accessible.

Here are a couple of examples of how drone use can reduce your liability and create a more credible appraisal report. In regions where drive-by inspections are not uncommon, the addition of a drone can turn a drive-by into a flyby. You could potentially uncover conditions at the subject property that would’ve otherwise been missed from the street, producing a more credible appraisal result.

How about making rugged or wet terrain more accessible and being able to capture a birds-eye view.

I’ve even heard from one appraiser, in Colorado, who used it to demonstrate the view from the third floor of a proposed construction, thereby being able to document the benefit of the view.

The uses are virtually endless, but they are not unregulated.

Here are a few facts that you need to be aware of before you start using a drone in your appraisal practice.

Drones are flown by either remote control or by an onboard computer. In technical terms, aerial drones are referred to as UAVs or unmanned aerial vehicles. Appraisers would use small drones, less than 55 pounds. Small drones are also referred to as sUAS (small Unmanned Aircraft Systems).

In August 2016, the commercialization of drone use was enacted by the Federal Aviation Administration.

The FAA’s final rule has revolutionized commercial operations of small drones. The rule replaced its previous commercial sUAS regime requiring individual, case-by-case adjudications and establishing a broad authority for pilots to operate within certain parameters.

Commercial operators, which would include appraisers using them for site inspections, of sUAS weighing 55 lbs or less will no longer need to petition for a Section 333 exemption if the operation falls under the new rule (also known as Part 107). Part 107 requires remote pilots-in-command (RPIC) to maintain visual line of sight with the sUAS at all times and to operate at a maximum altitude of 400 feet, at a maximum speed of 100 mph, during daytime hours, and not above non-participants. The RPIC will need to pass an initial aeronautical knowledge test, be at least 16 years old, and be vetted by the Transportation Security Administration. The first test was administered on August 29, 2016, at FAA-approved knowledge testing centers.

Small drones used for recreational, commercial, governmental or other purposes must be registered with the FAA. The registration only cost five dollars and is valid for a period of three years.  Here is a link to the FAA Drone Registration page.   https://faadronezone.faa.gov/#/

Prices of camera drones have come down. You can buy an entry-level camera drone for less than $350 USD. For close to $1,500 USD you can purchase a drone with professional image quality and performance. My recommendation is to buy an $89 drone without a camera to practice around your own property and drive your family crazy! Choose a drone that features an auto return to home when the battery runs low, for obvious reasons.

In the future, we will be releasing a seven-hour accredited continuing Ed course that will include a simulator to help you get started. It will include forms and phrases to help you integrate this highflying technology into your everyday practice.

Jul 102017
 

North Carolina proposes legislation to establish fair “customary and reasonable” fees for appraisers. Prompting the FTC (Federal Trade Commission) to go to bat for the AMCs.

While the state North Carolina is trying to ensure that the public receives quality appraisal services and pay fees that are “customary and reasonable” using data from the Veterans Association studies, etc., it looks like the FTC has chosen to protect the AMCs.

In North Carolina there is currently proposed legislation designed to establish what customary and reasonable fees are in specific regions. The legislation would establish that AMC fees are not always considered “customary and reasonable” and are precluded from being part of any average.

The state of North Carolina is not fixing fees, but establishing what “customary and reasonable” fees are for specific regions in that state. For instance, it costs an appraiser more money in the rural, mountainous, less populated regions of North Carolina to develop a credible appraisal than it does an appraiser in the city of Raleigh, North Carolina.

For the second time in the last two months, the FTC is accusing a state of pursuing appraisal fee laws that could restrict price competition and violate federal antitrust laws.

The FTC would be better served to look closer at the AMCs that charge the lending institution servicing fees that are sometimes greater than the amount of the appraisal itself.  Ultimately, those fees are paid for by the consumer, they are just not called an appraisal fee.

May 2017, the FTC filed a complaint against the Louisiana Real Estate Appraisal Board, accusing the Board of “unreasonably restraining price competition for appraisal services in Louisiana” by stipulating that appraisal management companies must follow the state’s established policies for the fees that AMCs pay to appraisers. The FTC suggests that the bill “may have the effect of displacing competition for the setting of appraisal fees and ultimately harming consumers in the form of higher prices.”

The North Carolina General Assembly is currently considering a bill that seems to be aimed squarely at the AMCs, because it would establish a single resource for determining what is customary and reasonable when it comes to fees in specific regions. Legislature includes a method for determining how the state’s appraisers are paid based on “academic studies, government fee surveys (Veterans Administration studies), and independent private sector surveys,” rather than allowing the fees to be set by market competition.

The North Carolina Assistant Attorney General requested the FTC issue a comment regarding its opposition to the North Carolina bill.

According to the FTC, North Carolina’s proposed legislation has some of the same issues as the proposed Louisiana legislation.  In its comment, the FTC states that the bill’s method for establishing appraisal fees “is not mandated by – and, in fact, may be inconsistent with – federal law.”

Authors note: Something can be inconsistent without violating the law!

The FTC claims that North Carolina’s proposed legislation goes beyond the rules established in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Dodd-Frank requires appraisal management companies to pay “a rate that is customary and reasonable for appraisal services performed in the market area of the property being appraised.”

The FTC states in its comment that it believes federal law does not require states to impose standards for customary and reasonable fees beyond what federal law provides, or to set customary and reasonable fees at any particular level.  FTC claims that North Carolina’s proposed legislation establishes a specific price schedule for appraisal fees that is not representative of the market place.

According to the FTC, the North Carolina legislation establishes the following rules for paying appraisers (from the FTC comments requested by NC AG Ouellette):

 

  • The bill states that “Compensation and offers of compensation provided to an appraiser shall be presumed reasonable” if the amounts are “reasonably related to recent rates paid by the consumer for comparable appraisal services performed in the geographic market of the property being appraised.”
  • The bill then states that “Recent rates paid shall not include those amounts paid by appraisal management companies.”
  • The bill further states that “Customary and reasonable rates shall be based on objective third-party information, such as academic studies, government fee surveys, and independent private sector surveys.”
  • Finally, the bill requires the Board to “adopt rules necessary to enforce this subsection.”

Those rules carry a number of issues, the FTC said in its comment.

The bill, as structured, could “effectively preclude AMCs from negotiating market-based fees with appraisers,” the FTC said. “We are concerned that this approach restricts free-market determination of appraisal fees and therefore may ultimately result in higher prices for consumers.”

Additionally, one piece of the North Carolina legislation’s language could lead to appraisers being paid the full amount that buyers are charged for the appraisal, rather than AMCs taking a portion for their services.

“The bill also expands this definition to include ‘recent rates paid by the consumer.’ We question whether it is appropriate for appraisers to receive the full rate that the consumer pays,” the FTC said.

“Typically, the consumer pays for additional services beyond the appraisal (e.g., other services provided by the AMC), the costs of which might be recovered by the lender as a lump-sum fee for the loan,” the FTC continues. “Thus, this provision also might have the effect of inflating the prices paid by AMCs for appraisal services, above the levels that would otherwise exist in a competitive market.”

The FTC also states that if North Carolina begins dictating that AMCs use a fee survey as the basis for how they pay appraisers, the free market will be removed from any role in determining the price of appraisal services, and might inflate appraisal fees above competitive levels.

“In other states that have commissioned fee surveys, methodology issues have resulted in a report of appraisal fees that may not accurately reflect market rates, and may have been significantly higher than market rates,” the FTC states.

“These fees, when paid by AMCs, are then passed on to consumers,” the FTC continues. “Where surveys report only median or average fees, rather than a range, the surveys fail to account for the variability of appraisal circumstances and fluctuations in the real estate market.”

The FTC concludes its comment with a bit of a warning for North Carolina.

“We urge the North Carolina General Assembly to consider whether HB-829 will promote competition and benefit consumers,” the FTC states.

“We are concerned that, if HB-829 were enacted, real estate appraisal fees in North Carolina might not be based on competitively set market rates, and that AMCs – and, ultimately, consumers – might face higher prices for real estate appraisal services,” the FTC concludes. “As evidenced by the recent filing of the FTC Board Louisiana Complaint, we will continue to investigate and, where appropriate, recommend that the Commission challenge potentially anticompetitive actions by real estate appraisal boards.”

Whomever is spearheading this at the FTC should consider taking a closer look at the fees AMCs are charging on top of the appraisal fee, which ultimately costs the consumer much more money than paying appraisers customary and reasonable fees.  They should consider whether these fees are not “other service”, but an extension of the appraisal cost and not the FTC doubletalk (above).

Let’s hope that the state of North Carolina prevails and their legislation passes creating an example that might be followed by other states throughout America.

Here’s a novel idea, real estate appraisers organizing and developing appraiser owned co-ops that would displace the AMCs and pay appraisers fair and reasonable fees. Co-ops would make money the appraisers would make more money (than they currently do), and the lending institutions would pay less money. Meanwhile, greater fees being paid appraisers would promote and stimulate the continued evolution of appraisal reports that is required by today’s higher standards.

May 312017
 

AVMs run on data, your data. Has Freddie or Fannie paid for your data lately? Maybe indirectly. Don’t feed the beast!

 

There are a lot of discussions these days about AVMs displacing appraisers. Is this a tempest in a teapot, a kerfuffle over nothing, or is there a real threat to the appraisal profession? The answers to that compound question are, no, no, and maybe. Freddie Mac refers to their AVM as an Automated Collateral Evaluation or ACE.

 

According to Scott Rueter, Freddie Mac’s chief appraiser and director of evaluation, “An appraiser is part of a risk decision. If there is a subset of loans where we can make that risk decision without an appraisal by leveraging responsible innovation, then we should do that. Our charter calls on us to provide liquidity; it doesn’t say order an appraisal on every single property. While the ACE is something that goes counter to my appraiser DNA, I understand it, and for a small subset of the safest loans, Freddie’s goal is to better serve the public.” You might say that Freddie Mac’s ACE up their sleeves, for better serving the public, is an AVM. What could go wrong?

 

Rueter went on to say, “We will overwhelmingly still need to order, grade, score, and consume appraisals. Our data systems are modeled from appraisal data, so it won’t work without appraisals. That doesn’t mean we will need appraisals on 100% of loans.”  So, there it is, are your appraisals feeding the machine? Did you give Freddie Mac permission to use your appraisals beyond the initial loan contemplated by the assignment?

 

What if every appraiser in America added a simple phrase to their appraisal report. Something like the following, “The data, conclusions, and opinions collected and rendered in this appraisal report are the intellectual property of the appraiser and provided to the client and users of the report for the exclusive use relating directly to the sale transaction contemplated by this assignment.” So, the lender, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae get to use the data for that loan, as anticipated.  Would Freddie and Fannie just use the data for their AVM (ACE) without telling you, or perhaps without even realizing the use is unauthorized?

 

An interesting thought, but of course it would take organization to motivate the vast number of appraisers across America to work in unison to prevent the unauthorized use of their data in an AVM.

 

Other things appraisers might consider doing, if they feel they may lose some of their work to AVMs, is diversifying their careers. Consider adding certified business appraisals and/or building and home inspection services to your professional offerings.

 

We will explore some of your options later in a Food for Thought we call, “Diversify, Diversify, Diversify” as a way to ensure your financial future, and have greater control over your schedule.

 

Before I sign off, if you can take a minute and let us know what courses you would like to see developed, we will be more than happy to consider them and try to make them a reality.

 

Good luck and do good work, Rich

May 222017
 

Is Freddie Mac planning to eat your lunch or have they already started? Are they planning to stay for dinner?  What can we do?

Will AVMs displace appraisers? AVMs have been making steady inroads for years, but as they do so, are they meeting their claim of greater accuracy and savings to the consumer? I personally believe the answer is no. While AVMs may be a terrific way to back check an appraisal provided by a licensed professional, broad usage puts the public at risk.

According to Freddie Mac, “Home Value Explorer® (HVE®) is a Freddie Mac automated valuation model (AVM) that generates an estimate of property value in seconds. HVE simplifies the mortgage process by streamlining the collateral valuation cycle. For more than 20 years, Freddie Mac has effectively employed AVMs internally for its own risk and portfolio management. Lenders and real estate professionals who need fast, accurate value estimates can benefit from the proprietary data, modeling expertise, industry knowledge and long-standing reputation that Freddie Mac and HVE bring to the market.”

Wow, touting the accuracy of their AVMs over the last 20 years, am I missing something?! Nine years ago, Congress effectively appointed FHFA as conservator (receiver) of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. On September 6, 2008, FHFA placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorships. Subsequently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, together, received $187.5 billion from taxpayers. So much for the effectiveness employed by Freddie Mac’s AVMs internally, for their own risk and portfolio management.

The Appraisal Foundation made this statement regarding AVMs “An Automated Valuation Model (AVM) is a computer-generated estimate of a property’s value that a lender might use in some circumstances to assist in evaluating the collateral for a mortgage. The output of an AVM is heavily dependent on the quantity and quality of the data input. With proper use, an AVM can help support the findings of an appraisal, but when used alone its output may not be credible.”

Freddie Mac is marketing their AVM to lending institutions around the country claiming the following advantages:

  • “Automated collateral evaluation, an option to waive an appraisal for certain mortgages. Increases efficiency and reduces costs in the origination process for lenders and homebuyers, while also providing immediate certainty with respect to the appraisal.
  • Automated income and asset validation, quickens borrower qualifications saving you and your borrowers time
  • Expanded homeownership opportunities for borrowers with no credit score, the ability to evaluate borrowers without a credit score.
  • Immediate certainty for collateral rep and warranty relief gives you confidence in the loans you sell to us. You’ll receive notification of eligibility through an indicator in Loan Product Advisor.
  • Improved feedback and layout of results, allows you to quickly and easily find and execute clear underwriting feedback for faster processing.
  • Intuitive and easy to navigate.
  • Take full advantage of the entire Freddie Mac credit box and suite of loan programs to originate more loans.
  • Source more correspondent business with an improved overall experience, including enhanced Loan Product Advisor workflow and ease-of-use through a loan origination system vendor.”

Freddie Mac claims their AVM contains 81 Million properties; where did all this data come from? Appraisers? As a community we need to begin thinking about intended use by intended users. We will explore this more in future ‘Food for thoughts.’

Dave Denson, appraiser and owner of Quick Turn Appraisals in California, wrote the following regarding the disadvantages of an AVMs:

“1.        Whether the house is really there – A computer can’t drive by a house to see if it’s actually located where it’s supposed to be, has four walls and a roof, and really is a four bedroom split level and not a one bedroom shack.

2.         Whether unique features of a property might add to or detract from market value – So a computer returns an estimated value of $150,000. Did it account for the sewage treatment station next door? The railroad tracks nearby with trains that blow their whistles every night? The school district? The desirability of its tree-lined street versus the next street over?

3.         How long ago the property was assessed – Many AVMs and free online services rely on public assessment records. In many states, for example, assessments may only be required every three years — the value may be nearly three years old in that case. Some states mandate that an assessed value not increase beyond a certain percentage, even if sales activity indicates the property has appreciated far more. When you use an AVM or free online service, you risk a lower value than reality.

4.         What makes the comparables comparable – A computer might compare your subject property to another property with similar square footage sold three months ago a quarter of a mile away. Even if that “comparable” property is in a different, less desirable school district, fronts a four-lane, 55 M.P.H. street, and is flood-prone. Or even if the property was sold under duress, such as in a divorce situation, or not at arm’s length, such as to a family member. A computer simply does not know all the adjustments that might need to be made to a “comparable” property’s sales price.

5.         Whether a market is declining – Automated valuations use data from recent, nearby sales. If those sales were completed at the peak of a local housing market, the computer will think the trend is going up. Even if a professional appraiser knows that the overall neighborhood is beginning to experience a downturn. As a lender, don’t get stuck with a property that’s been overvalued by a computer.

6.         Whether there is a conflict of interest –

7.         What qualifications, designations, experience and education the preparer of the value has – When you work with an appraiser, you can be confident we’re highly qualified, ethical and prepared to complete your assignment professionally and with good judgment. Most of the time, you don’t know the qualifications of whoever is behind those free online values, and they couldn’t compare to an appraiser’s if you did. And if you’re relying on an automated valuation, you’re cheating yourself out of an appraiser’s education, experience and expertise.”

Basically, what Dave is saying is there is no replacement for boots on the ground, and I couldn’t agree more. Beware of HAL! (lit.ref. Space Odyssey)

What can the appraisal community do to protect their future and the future of many American dreams? Let us know what your thoughts are.

On another topic, please let us know what type and topic you would like to see as a continuing education course. We are in the process of releasing our Concept to Completion Seminar on the heels of our Appraising Energy Efficient Residential Properties, and cherish your input.

Good luck and do good work,

Rich

May 152017
 

A homeowner, Barbara Andersen, who is also a real estate attorney, has filed suit against online realty giant Zillow, claiming the company’s controversial “Zestimate” tool repeatedly undervalued her house, creating a “tremendous road block” to its sale.

Zillow’s Zestimate feature is the cornerstone of its business model. Through it, Zillow attracts millions of home shoppers, allowing the company to sell advertising space to realty agents. Zillow generates significant capital resources with the help of its Zestimate model: In the first quarter of this year (2017), it reported $245.8 million in revenues, including $175 million in payments from “premier” agents, who pay for advertising.

Ms. Andersen must feel a little bit like David and Goliath as she goes to the mat with Zillow.

In the suit, Andersen said that she has been trying to sell her townhouse, which overlooks a golf course and is in a prime location, for $626,000 — roughly what she paid for it in 2009. Houses directly across the street, but with greater square footage sell for $100,000 or more, according to her court filing.  Zillow’s AVM has apparently used sales from a different and less costly part of town as comparables in valuing her townhouse without appropriate adjustments, she says. The most recent Zestimate for Ms. Andersen’s home is for $562,000. Andersen is seeking an injunction against Zillow.

 

Barbara Andersen, a real estate lawyer in Glenview, Ill., claims in the lawsuit filed in Cook County Circuit Court that Zillow’s Zestimate is making it difficult to sell her home. She isn’t seeking any financial compensation but is asking the court for an injunction that would require Zillow to either remove or modify the Zestimate of her property.

 

According to Courthouse News, in her complaint, the attorney states, “Since the recession, Andersen has been attempting to sell her home on different occasions. However, a tremendous roadblock to same has been the fact that Zillow posts a ‘Zestimate’ of person’s homes without their permission, consent and/or any license to do so,” “An estimate is effectively a sloppy computer-driven appraisal of the home.”

 

Andersen says Zillow is in violation of Illinois state law, which forbids people or businesses from issuing appraisals without the proper license. Zillow vehemently rejects the notion that its Zestimate is an appraisal.

 

This isn’t the first time that the accuracy of Zillow’s Zestimate has been publicly called into question. In an article in the Washington Post June 2014 David Howell Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer for McEnearney Associates was quoted extensively regarding the inaccuracies of Zillow’s Zestimate AVM. “No algorithm, however sophisticated, can quantify the value of a kitchen that was remodeled just before a home was put on the market or a yard that is poorly maintained. It simply isn’t possible for any AVM to predict the value of a home with a level of accuracy sufficient to make a housing decision.” It’s a good point that I think most appraisers will agree with.

 

Zillow published a response in an online magazine and described Howell’s comments as “wildly inaccurate and inconsistent, without much context as to how that level of accuracy compares to other opinions of value.”

 

For now, to wrap up; the following commentary by the author:

If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, and flies like a duck, where I come from….it’s probably a duck!!  Zillow, in their own words have described what Zestimae provides as an estimate of market value whose accuracy compares to other opinions of value…. Wow. Why did I ever bother getting a license to be an appraiser in the first place?

 

Just a thought, Zillow illegally providing real estate appraisals? Should they be licensed? Should there be some sort of oversight of AVMs like this?

 

If you have answers or thoughts please get back to us with them. We really enjoy and value the many opinions that come from our appraisal community.

 

Thanks for reading this Food for Thought, and stay tuned for more as this unfolds.

 

Good luck and do good work,

May 092017
 

CalypsoEdu Food for Thought:   No Comps… No Problem… Appraising Energy-Efficient Homes          By: Francis X. (Rich) Finigan

 

Major stumbling block in the proliferation of energy-efficient homes in America is not the additional cost associated with construction or improvements, but the Realty world trifecta, which is composed of three disparate, but intrinsically linked professions:

  • The lack of qualified real estate sales professionals who are capable of identifying and relaying to customers the intrinsic greater value in an energy-efficient home. Relating directly to this is, lack of information that is easy to obtain, retain, and disseminate in a compelling enough way for Realtors® to capture and share. The sharing of that information includes completing MLS documentation for access by the real estate appraisal community and other documentation.
  • The lack of qualified real estate appraisers available to complete credible valuation assignments on energy-efficient homes. Currently when an appraisers’ assignment is an energy-efficient home, and they don’t have comparable sales, they might identify the improvements as “super adequacies”. Is this an appraiser competency issue? (See USPAP COMPETENCY RULE).
  • Lending institutions, especially underwriters, lack the requisite knowledge to review an appraisal on energy-efficient homes. Just because a home is in energy-efficient home doesn’t necessarily mean it has a special FHA energy efficient mortgage. There is no reason that energy-efficient homes cannot be financed through conventional secondary mortgage lending. Unless you think not having comparable sales is a reason. Well… It’s not.

In the Freddie Mac Single Family Requirements, the secondary mortgage market clearly identifies that when comparable sales are not available, it is not only acceptable, but a requirement that two other credible methods to value be utilized to support the value opinion.

I wonder what those two other methods might be! (Just a tongue-in-cheek, which, for those of you who know me, know I can’t resist) The cost-approach and the income-approach. Don’t panic, it’s a lot easier than you think. For instance, the secondary mortgage market prefers that you don’t use regression-analysis, discounted-cash-flow, but use gross-rent-multipliers in presenting the income approach.

In Appraising Energy-Efficient Residential Properties we supply a step-by-step refresher on how to perform the cost-approach and income-approach for residential properties. We also identify pricing considerations when the assignment is for energy-efficient homes. The course includes a set of forms to incorporate with your appraisal to capture relevant data and support your conclusions.

Stay tuned for one of our Food For Thought articles where we will further explore dramatic changes in the appraisal profession, including those upcoming changes to USPAP.

Good luck and do good work,

 

Rich

Apr 252017
 

AQBs proposal in the March 15, 2017 Third Exposure Draft of Proposed Changes to the Real Property Appraiser Qualification Criteria suggests allowing trainees to gain their field experience hours by attending classes designed to simulate that experience.

For the last two years, the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB) has been examining potential areas of change to the Real Property Appraiser Qualification Criteria. It has become more and more difficult for trainees to find supervisors to work under even after they have successfully completed all current educational requirements.

The idea of using a classroom setting and pre-identified criteria for practice inspections is not new in the appraisal industry; the Appraisal Institute (AI) is been using this model in the MAI program for years. And one could argue, with a great amount of success.

While this concept is receiving mixed reviews; it is also clear that the appraisal community isn’t getting any younger, and there needs to be a way to perpetuate the profession.

One issue deals with licensed residential appraisers with years of experience who are unable to upgrade their certification.

If the AQB proposals described above are promulgated they will pave the way for trainees to receive some or all necessary training from a training program versus being mentored one on one by an appraiser in the field.

 

If you have thoughts regarding this proposal please share them with the AQB. AQBComments@appraisalfoundation.org

 

Stay tuned to our next food for thought.

Good luck and do good work.  Rich

Apr 192017
 

 

AQBs proposal in the March 15, 2017 Third Exposure Draft of Proposed Changes to the Real Property Appraiser Qualification Criteria clears the way for licensed appraisers to achieve certified residential status without a bachelor’s degree.

For the last two years, the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB) has been examining potential areas of change to the Real Property Appraiser Qualification Criteria.

One of the issues deals with licensed residential appraisers with years of experience who could not upgrade their license status to certified residential appraiser because they lacked a bachelor’s degree. This issue was not affecting just a handful of appraisers, it was affecting thousands. Recognizing how the current qualification standards were leaving behind the most qualified of applicants, the AQB has proposed criteria to address these issues.

For those appraisers that maintain a Licensed Residential credential and are seeking a Certified Residential credential, the AQB has developed 3 options to demonstrate specific college-level achievement.

The first option is to pass College-Level Examination Program (CLEP) [1] exams equivalent to a minimum of 21 semester credit hours in specified subject matter areas. CLEP is a well-recognized testing program accepted by 2,900 colleges and universities [2]. The specific subject areas AQB considers necessary to protect the public trust include:

  • College Algebra
  • College Composition
  •  College Composition Modular
  • College Mathematics
  • Principles of Macroeconomics
  • Principles of Microeconomics
  • Introductory Business Law

These specific CLEP exams are available at many testing centers across the country and will serve to demonstrate that an individual possesses the academic skills required to preserve and maintain public trust in the appraisal profession.

The second alternative to a Bachelor’s degree is to allow Licensed Residential appraisers seeking the Certified Residential credential to document successful completion of 21 semester hours of specific collegiate courses from an accredited college, junior college, community college, or university. The specific subject matters are:

  • English Composition (6 semester hours)
  • Economics or Finance (6 semester hours)
  • Algebra, Geometry, Statistics, or higher mathematics (6 semester hours)
  • Business Law or Real Estate Law (3 semester hours)

A third proposed alternative to the Bachelor’s degree requirement, includes any combination of CLEP tests and college semester hours as indicated above, provided all required topics are covered.

 

CLEP exams are relatively inexpensive. For instance, on the website collegeboard.org,  CLEP exams for college algebra required by AQB are just $80.  The study guide for the course is available from the same website for just $10. If you think you need additional study material for a given course, there are websites for MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) like Coursera that offer college-level courses for free. College credits are typically not obtained from these free courses, but they are effectively the same course students pay for.

 

If the AQB proposals described above are promulgated they will pave the way for highly qualified Residential Appraisers to advance to Certified Residential status. If you have thoughts regarding this proposal please share them with AQB. AQBComments@appraisalfoundation.org

 

Stay tuned: The AQB has proposed other exciting changes to the experience requirements that I will share with you in the future.

 

 

Good luck and do good work.

 

Rich

 

 

[1] CLEP exams involve “scaled scoring” without a pass/fail result. Applicants would be required to achieve exam scores that meet the minimums required to grant college credit at duly accredited colleges and universities.

[2] www.collegeboard.org